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Activity increases in September, with the OCR continuing to drive the market
SINGAPORE, 17 October 2011 – The URA monthly sales volume for private residential units (excluding executive condominiums (ECs)) increased by 21% m-o-m in September 2011 to 1,631 units, the first increase in sales volume since July 2011. The number of properties launched also increased in September, up by 39% m-o-m to 1,919 units. The Outside Central Region (OCR) continues to be the main driving force behind the increase in sales activity, recording a total of 1,321 units sold in September, while activity in the Core Central Region remains subdued, with sales down 24% m-o-m. Despite the increase in sales activity, the island-wide take-up rate contracted, with only 85% of units launched securing sales in September.
“The surprise upside in September monthly sales only confirms our earlier view of an underlying market need for homes” says Dr Chua Yang Liang, Head of Research, South East Asia. “The market remains price sensitive where projects in the CCR and RCR continue to have limited attraction (less than 50% sales rate) compared to those in the OCR which achieved above 70% such as Sim Lian’s A Treasure Trove at Punggol Walk, EuHabitat at Jln Eunos and Keppel’s The Luxurie.”
The OCR continued to provide the majority of supply and demand in the market, as the number of launches and units sold increased for the second consecutive quarter. The number of units launched increased by 36% m-o-m to 1,504 units as several major new projects were launched this month. These included A Treasure Trove in Punggol where 790 units were launched achieving a take-up rate of 86%. In addition, BBR Kovan Pte Ltd launched its Bliss@Kovan project, where 32 of the 35 units launched were sold, a take-up rate of 91%. Alongside the new launches, several projects released the next phase of units to the market. These included EuHabitat, where 159 more units were launched in September, along with a further 112 at Boathouse Residences, 114 at Terrasse and 100 at The Minton. All of these developments have enjoyed healthy take-up, with more than 70% of units launched securing sales.
Sales activity in the CCR continues to be subdued despite an increase in launches in September. The number of units sold in this region fell for the fourth consecutive quarter and only 50 units were sold, the lowest monthly total since January 2009, as most developments only sold one or two units that remained from previous launches. The number of units launched however more than doubled to 107 units following the low number of units (29) launched in August. The main contributor to the sales volume was the newly launched Hijuan on Cavenagh Road, where nine units from the 41 launched were sold, a take-up rate of just 22%. Overall take-up rate continues to fall in the CCR and was only 47% in September.
The Rest of Central Region (RCR) saw both sales and launches increase, by 24% and 52%, respectively, as activity in this region picked up. The RCR was also the only region to enjoy a m-o-m increase in take-up rate, reaching 88% overall for September compared with 69% in August. In total, 308 units were launched and 260 units sold in the RCR in September. There was one major new launch in the RCR at The Meyerise, where Hong Leong Holdings Ltd launched all 239 units at the development, although sales activity was subdued with only 45% of units sold. Outside of this, launch activity was limited with the further units released at Thomson Grand (35 units) and Reflections at Keppel Bay (20 units) making up the majority of the remainder.
As far as developers’ new sales numbers are concerned (not taking into account caveats lodged), we estimated a total of 12,643 units of new sales (for all types excluding EC) for the first nine months of 2011. We can expect a slower showing for the remaining of the year given the current economic headwinds coupled with seasonal slowdown. Dr Chua adds “The monthly transaction level could remain between 900- 1,200 units a month for the final quarter of 2011, giving us another 2,700 to 3,600 additional sales by end 2011.This could take the 2011 level to some 15,350 to 16,250 units or 2-8% shy of the 2010 level of 16,620 units”. While prices could face downside pressure if external conditions take another dip and dampen sentiments further, given the strong underlying housing demand, we can expect a strong rebound subsequently”, he added.
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Dr. Chua Yang Liang
+65 6494 3 721