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News Release

Singapore

Jones Lang LaSalle’s Perspective: Urban Redevelopment Authority Private Residential Property Transactions for October 2010

Core Central Region Led Sooner-than-expected Sales Recovery


The URA monthly sales volume rose by 16% m-o-m to 1,058 units in October, pointing to a sooner-than-expected recovery in sales following state intervention in August.

In our last release, we highlighted that the latest measures (introduced on 30 August 10) fell short of the first (introduced on 15 September 09) in moderating sales volume as the weighted sales volume  fell by 24% to 921 units in the first 30 days after the date of intervention compared with the first set of measures which resulted in a decline of 33% to 966 units, ceteris paribus.

We maintained this view given that the weighted sales volume has now expanded by 14% in the second 30-day period after 30 August 10, in contrast with a 27% contraction after 15 September 09 (refer to Table 1).

Table1: Weighted Sales Volume
Date of state intervention
Weighted sales volume
Change, (B)/(A)
Preceding 30 days
Following first 30-day period (A)
Following second 30-day period (B)
1st set (15 Sep 09)
1,445 966 701 -27%
2nd set (20 Feb 10)
1,337
1,593
2,057
29%
3rd set (30 Aug 10)
1,218
921
1,053
14%
Source: URA, Jones Lang LaSalle Research
 
Dr Chua Yang Liang, Head of Research South East Asia commented, “While we had expected the latest measures, which are restrictive policies that deter speculators’ entry into the market, to have a longer-term effect, the numbers are showing that the adjustment period to the stricter regulatory environment may be shortening for the buyers. The high liquidity that is circulating around has certainly fuelled this growth. The sales volume in October this year is at least 30% higher than those corresponding months since 2007.”

As expected, the recent measures would have a marginal impact on the Core Central Region (CCR) as the profile of buyers (i.e. high net worth individuals who usually do not require loans, foreigners who do not have a stake in the public housing market) suggests that they are less adversely affected by the buying restrictions. In addition, the CCR appeared to be a destination of the excess liquidity as sales volume expanded almost four-fold m-o-m to 335 units in October, led by three new launches, i.e. The Glyndebourne (150 units), Suites at Orchard (118 units) and RV Point (36 units) which accounted for almost all of the units launched in the CCR during the month.  

Sales volume in the Outside Central Region (OCR) suffered the most as the number of units sold fell by 25% m-o-m to 452 units, in line with our expectations. The same analysis on the weighted sales volume for OCR also showed less contraction during the second 30-day period. Furthermore, the launch of the two Executive Condominium (EC) projects, namely Esparina Residences (573 units) and The Canopy (406 units) have taken some demand out of the mass market with 529 units sold collectively. This has in some part led to the slowdown in OCR. The OCR take-up rate maintained at around 88% as launches also fell by 24% m-o-m to 513 units. The major launches in OCR include Vacanza @ East (144 released units), The Lanai (111 released units), NV Residences (100 released units) and Kovan Grandeur (74 units), of which NV Residences continued to record healthy sales by selling 81 units (take-up: 81%) in October and brought its cumulative sales volume to 418 units (take-up: 87%).

Sales activity in the Rest of Central Region (RCR) maintained and a total of 271 units were sold, only 45 units higher that in the previous month. This continued on the back of few launches totalling 247 units in October, in light of a substantial supply of launched but unsold units. These launches include Cityscape at Farrer Park (75 released units), Silversea (50 released units) and Suites @ Sims (48 units). Suites @ Sims was fully taken up at a median price of $1,232 per sq ft or an approximate price quantum of $464,000 for the primary unit type, i.e. 1-bedroom apartment at a size of 377 sq ft, suggesting that affordability remains the key as with other projects. 

The latest URA numbers would bring the year-to-date total sales volume to 13,365 units, just 4% below the volume achieved during the same period in 2009. “Given the latest sales results that have exceeded expectations once again, we revised our projection for the full year’s sales volume to reach 14,500 to 15,000 units and prices are likely to remain flat,” Dr Chua added.
 
Table2: Total island-wide (landed & non-landed) units sold
Oct-10
Sep-10
Oct-09
m-o-m change
y-o-y change
CCR
335
84
311
299%
8%
OCR 452 601 255
-25%
77%
RCR
271
226
249
20%
9%
Island-wide
1,058
911
815
16%
30%
Take-up Rate
99%
86%
143%
-
-
Source: URA/ Jones Lang LaSalle Research
 
Explanatory Notes:
(1) The weighted sales volume is calculated by summing up the average sales volume per day, i.e. URA monthly sales volume/number of calendar days in a month, for 30 days before and after the effective date of state intervention (refer to Fig 1).
(2) Core Central Region (CCR): which comprises Postal Districts 9, 10 and 11, the Downtown Core and Sentosa
(3) Rest of Central Region (RCR): Rest of Central Region (RCR) which comprises the Central Region outside the CCR
(4) Outside Central Region (OCR): Area outside Central Region
(5) Landed Housing: Include bungalows, semi-detached and terrace houses
(6) Non-Landed Housing: Include apartment/condominium
(7) Median price: For landed residential properties (i.e. detached, semi-detached and terrace houses), the median price per sq m is computed based on their land area. For strata sub-divided properties, such as apartments, condominiums, cluster housing, townhouses, the median price per sq m is computed based on their strata floor area.
(8) Take up rate: Number of units sold over number of units launched. Number of units sold in that month can surpassed the units launched as some buyers are buying unsold units released in the previous months.