Private residential units sold by developers in January 2024

SINGAPORE, 15 February 2024 – On 15 February 2024, the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) released the data on developer sales for the month of January 2024.

A summary of the launches and sales is provided in the Appendix.

Ms. Chia Siew Chuin, Head of Residential Research, Research & Consultancy at JLL

谢岫君, 私宅市场研究部主管 (新加坡) commented:

Key Observations

In a lacklustre start to the year, developers sold only 281 units last month, making it the weakest January showing in 15 years since 2009, when just 108 new units were offloaded amid the global financial crisis.

Last month’s tally was also 28.7% lower compared to that in January 2022, although on a month-on-month basis, new sales more than doubled from 135 units in December 2023.

Soft macroeconomic conditions continue to hamper buyer sentiment, which is further exacerbated by lofty prices, elevated interest rates, and market cooling measures. Primary sales were also limited as most developers chose to hold off on launching new projects in the seasonally slow period preceding the Chinese New Year holidays.

Project Launches and Sales

Developers released 417 units in January, more than 11 times the 36 units launched a month prior and 1.7% higher year-on-year.

The Outside Central Region (OCR) or suburbs, led new home sales during the month, with developers selling 144 private homes in this area. The Rest of Central Region (RCR) or city fringes, followed with 112 transactions, while projects in the Core Central Region prime market managed to sell 25 units.

Two new private housing projects – Hillhaven in the OCR and The Arcady at Boon Keng in the RCR – were debuted in January. Sales at Hillhaven (64 units) accounted for 44.4% of private new home sales in the OCR while The Arcady at Boon Keng (47 units) contributed to 42.0% of new sales in the RCR. Combined, the 111 units sold at both new projects accounted for 39.5% of all private new home sales during the month.

Other ongoing top selling projects in January include The Myst (with 21 units sold), The Landmark (with 17 units sold) and Pinetree Hill (with 15 units sold).

In January 2024, the majority of new home transactions, accounting for 72.7% of the total, fell within the price range of $1 million to less than $2.5 million. Deals that were priced between $2.5 million to less than $4 million made up 21.9%, while the remaining 5.4% represented larger transactions valued at $4 million or more.

Driven by the two new private project launches in January, the majority of buyers in the primary market were inclined towards units priced from $1 million to less than $2.5 million. Specifically, 75.0% of Singaporean PR buyers and 73.1% of Singaporean buyers opted for units within this price range.

Table A – Proportion of New Homes Sold by Price Range and Residential Status in January 2024

Source: URA, JLL Research as of 15 Feb 2024

Outlook

As January is typically a slow month for property sales, a better gauge of sale performance would be the months following the Chinese New Year. Hence, despite a slow start to the year, a guarded optimism prevails for 2024, with expectations of a relatively resilient private home sales market.

Buyer caution will persist into 1H24 due to market cooling measures, economic uncertainties, high interest rates, and lofty prices. Yet, while the stricter Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty measures will continue to deter foreign buyers and investors, the current market continues to exhibit traction, where buying momentum remains driven by genuine local buyers who are looking to buy a home for owner occupancy. However, buyers are presented with ample options, making them highly discerning and sensitive to prices and the specific attributes of each project.

Developers are, hence, likely to adopt more sensitive pricing strategies, but significant price corrections are not expected, and the prices of new projects should hold up given the high land and development costs already invested. In certain instances, developers may have the opportunity to strategically raise prices for selected projects that showcase attractive locations and compelling product offerings.

The favourable combination of low unemployment, ample market liquidity, and anticipated improvements in the economic and interest rate environment in 2H24 are expected to bolster buyers' confidence. Past trends also suggest that market slowdowns can swiftly rebound, leading to a resurgence in home sales and price growth when the external environment improves. The robust potential launch pipeline of some 12,000 new units for the year is also expected to stimulate demand, leading to a projected new home sales volume of 7,000 – 8,000 units for 2024. This is up from the 6,421 new units sold in 2023 but remains below the five-year annual average of 9,288 units from 2019 to 2023.

Overall private home prices are projected to rise by 3% to 5% in 2024, a moderation from the 6.8% rise in 2023.

Appendix

Hillhaven and The Arcady at Boon Keng were newly launched in January 2024. Both projects accounted for 89.2% of the total private home units launched and 39.5% of the total new units sold in the month.

Table A – New Launches

Source: URA

The top selling projects during the month are listed in Table B. Besides the two newly launched projects, the previously launched The Myst was also among the top-selling projects during the month, as developers continued to release units in the project for sale.

Table B - Top Selling Projects

Source: URA